According to the latest 2025 Cargo Global Market Forecast (GMF) released by Airbus, the worldwide fleet of dedicated freighter aircraft is expected to increase by 45% over the next two decades, reaching a total of 3,420 aircraft by 2044. As Airbus notes in its press release, this figure includes 815 existing freighters and an additional 2,605 new aircraft.
Of these 2,605 additional aircraft, 1,530 will replace existing models, while 1,075 will account for fleet growth. Structurally, the new generation of freighters will consist of 1,120 small, 855 medium widebody, and 630 large widebody aircraft. Airbus forecasts that 1,670 of these will be passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversions, while 935 will be newly built freighters.
Global economic growth (GDP) and trade remain the main drivers of demand. Airbus projects that world trade will grow at an average annual rate of 2.7%, while air cargo will expand at 3.3% per year, effectively almost doubling global cargo capacity by 2044. The manufacturer emphasizes that air freight has proven essential not only to support global economies but also to connect remote communities and deliver vital and health-critical goods.
After a sharp expansion of the cargo market during the pandemic, driven by a surge in passenger aircraft conversions and the prolonged use of older freighters, Airbus now anticipates a gradual phase-out of those older aircraft. They will be replaced by newer, more efficient, and environmentally sustainable models such as the A350F, as well as A320/A321 and A330 Passenger-to-Freighter (P2F) conversions.
Airbus also forecasts a shift in the geography of global air cargo flows, as the Asia-Pacific region strengthens its role as an industrial hub, with countries like Indonesia and Vietnam emerging as new industrial and consumer economies. Similarly, growing economies such as Brazil are expected to become major contributors to global trade, driving diversification of cargo flows and reshaping the global freight network.
Out of the total need for 2,605 new freighters, nearly two-thirds of the demand will come from the Asia-Pacific and North American markets, which will require around 850 and 920 aircraft, respectively.
As Airbus concludes, the next two decades will see the emergence of a new generation of more efficient, economical, and sustainable freighters that will define the future of global logistics.
