With the arrival of the Airbus A220, Croatia and Croatia Airlines finally have a modern, comfortable, and economical aircraft with immense potential. This new addition to the fleet is poised to drive the airline’s development, open new routes, and offer passengers an enhanced travel experience. But what lies ahead once these planes join the fleet? What will happen when Croatia Airlines is ready to expand its network even further? During the presentation of the airline’s new visual identity, an unexpected idea was floated—intercontinental flights. This surprising announcement caught many off guard. While the focus had been firmly on the A220’s arrival, the prospect of long-haul routes wasn’t on anyone’s radar.
As a top global tourist destination, Croatia attracts visitors from all over the world. Currently, the country is a sought-after location, appearing on countless travel wish lists. However, Croatia lacks sufficient direct connections to other continents. At present, only a few intercontinental routes exist: Zagreb offers flights to Toronto, Seoul, Dubai, and Doha, while Dubrovnik connects to Newark and Dubai. Beyond these, the country relies heavily on excellent connections through major European hubs. For a tourism-driven nation like Croatia, additional direct intercontinental flights are crucial. They simplify travel for passengers, reduce the need for multiple transfers, and significantly shorten travel times. Enhancing direct connectivity to other continents would undoubtedly strengthen Croatia’s appeal as a premier destination.
A321XLR
If Croatia Airlines were to pursue an aircraft with long-haul capabilities, it would face two options: opting for a narrow-body aircraft or choosing a wide-body model. Wide-body aircraft come with high procurement costs and fierce competition from numerous European and global airlines. Given Croatia Airlines’ small fleet size, the pronounced seasonality of its market, and its current operational scale, the narrow-body route seems more practical at first glance. Starting with narrow-body aircraft allows for gradual expansion and provides the flexibility to introduce wide-body aircraft later if demand grows. However, it’s worth noting that wide-body aircraft offer greater range, enabling connections to a broader array of destinations.
Among the long-haul narrow-body options available today, only the Airbus A321neo series offers viable solutions in its LR (Long Range) and XLR (Extra Long Range) variants. The A321LR boasts a range of 7,400 kilometers, while the A321XLR extends that range to an impressive 8,700 kilometers. These capabilities would allow Croatia Airlines to connect Zagreb—or other Croatian airports—with key international markets, enhancing the country’s global connectivity.
Detailed operational data for the A321XLR is currently limited, as the aircraft has only recently entered commercial service. Iberia, for instance, has received its first A321XLR, initially deploying it on European routes for crew training before expanding to transatlantic flights to the United States.
In contrast, the A321LR has been in service for several years, providing ample data for analysis. According to Wikipedia, the longest flight operated by an A321LR is flown by La Compagnie between Milan Malpensa and Newark. This route spans approximately 6,500 kilometers, with the westbound flight to Newark taking around 9 hours and the return flight approximately 8 hours due to tailwinds.
Other airlines use the Airbus A321LR for these distances:
- Air Transat – 6500 kilometers.
- SAS – 6200 kilometers
- TAP Air Portugal – 6000 kilometers
- JetBlue – 5,900 kilometers
- Philippine Airlines – 5,800 kilometers
- Aer Lingus – 5600 kilometers
- Air Astana – 4700 kilometers
- Azores Airlines – 4500 kilometers
The given distances represent direct paths between two airports—commonly referred to as geodetic lines, orthodromes, or, in English, great circle distances. This is the shortest route between two points on the Earth’s surface. However, the actual distance flown by an aircraft is often longer due to various factors. These include weather conditions, such as storms that require detours, restricted airspaces due to political, military, or other reasons, and additional operational considerations. For this reason, maximum direct distances should be interpreted cautiously, as they serve primarily as indicators of an aircraft’s range. In reality, flights often cover several hundred additional kilometers.
In conclusion, most airlines operate routes that are at least 1,000 kilometers shorter than the maximum range of the Airbus A321LR, which is 7,400 kilometers. This means the A321LR is typically used on routes up to 6,500 kilometers. For the A321XLR, similar adjustments can be made. With a theoretical maximum range of 8,700 kilometers, subtracting 1,000 kilometers gives an estimated practical range of 7,700 kilometers. However, these are still theoretical values, and the true operational range will become evident as the A321XLR begins commercial flights and demonstrates its capabilities in real-world scenarios.
Tourists as the biggest potential users of the A321XLR
According to statistics from the Croatian Tourist Board, over 15 million tourists visited Croatia in 2022. Of these, just over one million came from continents outside Europe, while the remaining 14 million were European visitors. This makes Europe the most significant market for Croatian tourism, with key countries such as Germany, Austria, Slovenia, and Poland leading the way—each contributing more than a million tourists.
As for arrivals from other continents, the breakdown is as follows:
Arrivals of tourists from foreign countries (outside of Europe)
- USA – 502,000
- Canada – 99,000
- Australia – 78,000
- Brazil – 43,000
- South Korea – 41,000
- Argentina – 24,000
- Mexico – 19,000
- India – 28,000
- China – 28,000
- Singapore – 13,000
- New Zealand – 13,000
- Chile – 12,000
- Malaysia – 11,000
- Republic of South Africa – 11,000
- Japan – 11,000
By continent, it would look like this:
- North America – 601,000
- Asia – 223,000
- South and Central America – 128,000
- Oceania – 92,000
- Africa – 26,000
According to statistics, North America is the most important non-European market for Croatian tourism. In 2022, half a million tourists arrived from the United States. More detailed data would help identify which regions of the U.S. these visitors predominantly come from—whether it’s the East Coast, West Coast, or other areas. This is crucial because the Airbus A321XLR, with its range, can connect Croatia to the U.S. East Coast but cannot reach the West Coast directly. To bridge this gap, Croatia Airlines would benefit from partnering with a U.S.-based carrier to funnel passengers from across the U.S. to East Coast hubs, where they could connect to flights bound for Croatia. United Airlines, with whom Croatia Airlines already has a codeshare agreement, could be a strong candidate for such a partnership.
Currently, Croatia Airlines does not operate long-haul flights. The vast majority of its routes are short-haul, within a 2-3 hour radius from Croatia. Most flights head north and west, connecting to major European aviation hubs like Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam, and London. These hubs serve as key gateways for long-haul passengers, including those from North America, who typically reach Croatia via connecting flights through these cities.
North America
Based on tourism statistics, North America stands out as Croatia’s most significant market outside of Europe. However, the transatlantic market poses challenges for many carriers, primarily due to issues with route profitability. High competition keeps ticket prices relatively low, limiting earnings. Meanwhile, capacity on transatlantic routes continues to grow, raising concerns about whether passenger demand will keep pace.
In this context, smaller narrow-body aircraft like the Airbus A321XLR are well-positioned to gain a significant share of the market. Narrow-body planes are easier to fill than wide-body ones, making them a logical choice for Croatia Airlines. Nonetheless, the airline would face hurdles when entering this competitive market, especially in building brand recognition. Passengers are more familiar with established carriers that have been operating transatlantic flights for years or decades. To attract travelers, Croatia Airlines may need to offer competitive pricing. Prices that are too high would push passengers to choose more affordable carriers, while overly low prices could undermine profitability.
A strategic codeshare agreement with United Airlines in the U.S. could open key opportunities for Croatia Airlines. Major destinations like New York (Newark), Chicago, and Washington D.C. would serve as ideal hubs. These airports are integral to United’s network:
– Chicago O’Hare: Over 200 destinations with more than 500 flights daily.
– New York (Newark): Connected to 160 destinations with over 400 flights daily.
– Washington Dulles: More than 230 daily flights to destinations across North America.
Such cooperation would ensure excellent connectivity for passengers, with United Airlines feeding traffic to Croatia Airlines’ transatlantic routes. Additionally, expanding to other well-connected hubs in the eastern U.S. could further strengthen the partnership.
Similarly, partnering with Air Canada would facilitate connections to Toronto and Montreal, their two most significant hubs in eastern Canada. These two partnerships alone would allow Croatia Airlines to cover all major North American markets efficiently with just one stopover.
List of some important cities, and distances between them and Zagreb (Destinations marked in red are outside the A32XLR range):
- Zagreb – Montreal 6600 km
- Zagreb – Boston 6600 km
- Zagreb – New York 6900 km
- Zagreb – Toronto 7100 km
- Zagreb – Philadelphia 7100 km
- Zagreb – Washington 7300 km
- Zagreb – Chicago 7700 km
- Zagreb – Atlanta 8200 km
- Zagreb – Miami 8500 km
- Zagreb – Vancouver 8700 km
- Zagreb – Seattle 8900 km
- Zagreb – San Francisco 9900 km
- Zagreb – Los Angeles 10100 km
Asia
After North America, Asia represents the second-largest market for tourists visiting Croatia. However, unlike North America, where a significant share of tourists comes from the United States, the Asian market is more fragmented across several countries. South Korea stands out as a key source, followed by India, China, Japan, and others.
While South Korea is beyond the range of the Airbus A321XLR from Zagreb, India presents an ideal market for this aircraft. Cities like Delhi and Mumbai are approximately 6,000 kilometers from Zagreb—well within the A321XLR’s estimated range of 7,500 kilometers. This allows the aircraft to operate comfortably without pushing its limits.
India is an especially interesting market for Croatia Airlines, as it offers significant growth potential. During the winter season, routes to warm-weather destinations in the region, such as Dubai, the Maldives, and Sri Lanka, could also prove popular. These destinations are favored by travelers seeking warm climates while Europe experiences colder months.
In certain cases, particularly for Middle Eastern destinations like Dubai, the A321XLR isn’t even necessary. The Airbus A220, already part of Croatia Airlines’ fleet, is more than capable of serving such routes efficiently. Leveraging these aircraft strategically would allow Croatia Airlines to optimize its operations and cater to a wider range of markets.
- Zagreb – Nur Sultan 4000 km
- Zagreb – Dubai 4200 km
- Zagreb – Almaty 4700 km
- Zagreb – Delhi 5600 km
- Zagreb – Mumbai 6000 km
- Zagreb – Kathamndu 6300 km
- Zagreb – Male 7200 km
- Zagreb – Colombo 7400 km
- Zagreb – Beijing 7700 km
- Zagreb – Seoul 8500 km
- Zagreb – Bangkok 8500 km
- Zagreb – Shanghai 8700 km
- Zagreb – Phuket 8800 km
- Zagreb – Hong Kong 8800 km
- Zagreb – Singapore 9750 km
Africa
Compared to other continents, Africa accounts for a relatively small number of tourists visiting Croatia. Due to this limited traffic, connecting Croatia and Africa should not be a primary focus for Croatia Airlines. However, certain exceptions could be considered, particularly destinations in North Africa. These routes are well within the range of the Airbus A220, making it a suitable aircraft for such operations.
One notable destination could be South Africa, given its importance. However, the Airbus A321XLR lacks the range needed to reach the Republic of South Africa from Croatia. Alternatively, the A321XLR could be considered for flights to destinations like Kenya, Zanzibar, or other locations popular with Croatian travelers. These routes, however, would likely fall under the domain of charter flights rather than regular scheduled services. Such flights could be organized during Croatia’s off-season for tourism, particularly in the winter months. This would allow Croatia Airlines to utilize its aircraft effectively during periods of lower demand for transatlantic routes.
- Zagreb – Addis Ababa 4700 km
- Zagreb – Nairobi 5700 km
- Zagreb – Zanzibar 6300 km
- Zagreb – Seychelles 6900 km
- Zagreb – Johannesburg 8100 km
- Zagreb – Mauritius 8500 km
- South and Central America
Over 100,000 passengers arrive in Croatia from South and Central America, indicating potential for growth in this market. However, the Airbus A321XLR’s range is unfortunately too limited for many destinations in this region. It could reach as far as Fortaleza on the edge of South America, but the aircraft’s range falls short for further connections, including to the Caribbean. Due to these limitations, the A321XLR cannot be effectively used during the winter months for routes to warmer destinations in the Americas.
- Zagreb – Fortaleza 7700 km
- Zagreb – Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic) 8200 km
- Zagreb – Punta Cana 8100 km
- Zagreb – Havana 8800 km
- Zagreb – Montego Bay 8800 km
- Zagreb – Cancun 9300 km
- Zagreb – Sao Paulo 9950 km
Conclusion
According to tourism statistics, Croatia Airlines should primarily focus on connecting Croatia with the most important markets within Europe, as the 14 million European tourists represent a significant opportunity. This presents a chance for the airline to capture a major share of the market. Entering the long-haul market could also prove profitable, though it comes with risks and high costs. Still, the potential for substantial revenue and positioning Croatia as a key tourist destination makes it an attractive option.
The biggest challenge for Croatia Airlines remains the off-season, when interest from tourists wanes, and the country is largely forgotten. During this period, the airline would need to utilize its aircraft to connect Croatia with warmer destinations, offering passengers a chance to enjoy beach vacations and swimming in the winter. However, the list of such destinations is limited, with key markets in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa standing out. These include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, India, the Maldives, Kenya, and Tanzania. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is becoming an emerging tourist destination and should certainly be considered by Croatia Airlines for future routes.
Destinations like Thailand, Indonesia, and the Dominican Republic, which are popular for winter sun, are too far for the A321XLR. These markets are attractive for Croatian travelers, given their affordability, but the aircraft’s range is a limitation. This is one of the key drawbacks of the A321XLR for Croatia Airlines. Due to Croatia’s geographic position, the A321XLR is well-suited to connect to the eastern U.S., the largest market for Croatia, but the aircraft falls short for other vital destinations, such as South Korea and Japan, due to its range limitations.
The Airbus A321XLR is undoubtedly an intriguing aircraft, and Croatia Airlines should carefully evaluate whether it aligns with its long-term goals. Another significant challenge is the delivery timeline. Production slots for the A321neo have been sold out for years, meaning Croatia Airlines may not receive the aircraft until the beginning of the next decade—at least five years from now. However, this delay could work in the airline’s favor. It provides ample time for Croatia Airlines to replace its existing fleet with the A220, optimizing its network and preparing for the eventual arrival of the A321XLR.
