This week, at the EAA AirVenture aviation event in Oshkosh, Boeing released its annual Pilot and Technician Outlook report, forecasting that the global commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new professionals—including pilots, technicians, and cabin crew—by 2044. While the numbers suggest growth compared to previous forecasts, Boeing simultaneously acknowledges a slight short-term decline in demand for pilots and technicians, resulting from the current stabilization following the post-pandemic recovery and the current capacity of aviation schools.
The company emphasizes that long-term growth will be sustained, driven by the replacement of aging personnel, an increasing number of aircraft in the fleet, and market expansion—especially in Asia. It is predicted that two-thirds of new hires will be needed to replace natural attrition due to retirements and other reasons, while the remaining one-third will cover industry growth. Demand will be most pronounced for single-aisle aircraft, which form the backbone of regional and low-cost carriers. At the same time, regions like South and Southeast Asia are expected to see more than a threefold increase in staffing needs, while China, North America, and Eurasia together account for more than half of the total global demand.
Although the overall 20-year figure appears impressive, Boeing admits that short-term demand for pilots and technicians has slightly decreased compared to previous forecasts, particularly in mature markets. This is attributed to slower hiring at some airlines, improvements in training efficiency, and greater availability of candidates from recent training cohorts. However, the company continues to invest in innovations aimed at improving the quality and accessibility of training—including the application of artificial intelligence as well as virtual and mixed reality—with the goal of better preparing aviation personnel for the challenges of modern commercial flying.
Regardless of short-term fluctuations, Boeing remains confident that the global industry will require a strong, continuous influx of new personnel over the next two decades. The company emphasizes that addressing the workforce shortage will require collaboration across the entire industry, a focus on competency-based training, and investments in new technologies that enable more efficient and flexible preparation of future aviation professionals.
