The global commercial aviation support and services market will reach a value of US$4.9 trillion over the next 20 years, while the industry will simultaneously require more than 2.4 million new pilots, technicians and cabin crew members, according to Boeing’s latest long-term forecasts.

The US manufacturer presented its 2026 Services Market Outlook and Pilot & Technician Outlook at the Farnborough International Airshow, covering expected market developments through 2045. Boeing believes that short-term disruptions affecting production, supply chains and recruitment will not significantly alter the long-term growth of air traffic, which is expected to double during the forecast period.

Growth of the global fleet, higher aircraft utilisation and the need to maintain increasingly complex systems are expected to create a services and support market worth US$4.9 trillion. This includes aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul, spare parts, technical support, training, digital solutions and aircraft lifecycle management.

Boeing expects the market to be strongly influenced by fleet digitalisation, wider use of data in maintenance planning, changes in the geographical distribution of demand and airlines’ efforts to improve aircraft efficiency and availability. At the same time, production constraints, supply chain disruptions and shortages of qualified personnel could remain among the industry’s greatest challenges.

“We see strong demand ahead across the services portfolio, new opportunities associated with increasingly digital fleets and a growing need for a skilled workforce,” said Chris Raymond, president and chief executive officer of Boeing Global Services.

Ensuring a sufficient number of qualified personnel will present a particular challenge. Boeing estimates that commercial aviation will require approximately 674,000 new pilots, 728,000 maintenance technicians and 1,023,000 cabin crew members by 2045. The total forecast requirement therefore amounts to 2.425 million new aviation professionals.

Around two-thirds of the new personnel will be needed to replace employees who retire or leave the industry over the next two decades, while the remaining third will be required to support growth of the global fleet. Boeing therefore warns that personnel shortages will not result solely from increasing air traffic, but also from a major generational transition within the industry.

The highest demand for new aviation professionals is expected in Europe and Eurasia, where Boeing forecasts a requirement for 571,000 people, including 153,000 pilots, 169,000 technicians and 249,000 cabin crew members. The regional services and support market is estimated to be worth US$1.185 trillion.

North America will require approximately 438,000 new personnel and generate a services market worth US$995 billion, while China will need around 425,000 new aviation professionals and create demand for services valued at approximately US$875 billion.

Southeast Asia is expected to require an additional 258,000 personnel, the Middle East 236,000, South Asia 150,000 and Latin America 136,000. Boeing forecasts demand for 75,000 new personnel in Africa, 95,000 in Northeast Asia and approximately 41,000 in Oceania.

To meet this level of demand, Boeing highlights the importance of investing in workforce education and development, as well as wider implementation of competency-based training and assessment. Advanced training technologies, including simulators and other immersive solutions that support practical learning and situational awareness, are also expected to play a greater role.

The forecasts show that the growth of commercial aviation over the next two decades will depend not only on the delivery of new aircraft, but also on the industry’s ability to provide sufficient infrastructure, maintenance services and qualified personnel. Shortages of pilots and technicians, combined with pressure on production and supply chain capacity, could become one of the main constraints on future growth.