Global air traffic is expected to more than double by 2045, reaching approximately 10 billion passengers per year, according to Airbus’ latest long-term market forecast covering the 2026–2045 period.

The European manufacturer estimates that airlines will require a total of 42,060 new passenger and cargo aircraft over the next 20 years. Of these, 22,240 aircraft will be needed to support traffic growth and fleet expansion, while the remaining 19,820 will replace older aircraft gradually being retired from service.

The largest share of demand, around 81%, will be for single-aisle aircraft, while widebody models will account for the remaining 19%. This market structure reflects continued demand for more economical aircraft that consume less fuel, produce lower carbon dioxide emissions and allow airlines to profitably open routes with lower passenger volumes.

According to Airbus’ Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic is expected to grow by an average of 3.9% annually. Growth will be supported by average global GDP growth of 2.6% per year, an additional 1.3 billion people living in urban areas and the continued expansion of the middle class.

The number of middle-class people most likely to travel by air is expected to increase by 1.4 billion, or 34%, by 2045. Airbus believes that regional conflicts, high fuel prices and other short-term disruptions may temporarily affect traffic, but historical data shows that they do not alter its long-term growth trend.

A major change will be the gradual decentralisation of airline networks. Populations are increasingly shifting towards smaller and medium-sized urban centres, whose numbers are expected to grow faster than those of large cities. At the same time, more efficient aircraft are enabling connections between markets that previously could not support direct commercial services.

Airbus cites Riga–Tenerife and Melbourne–Alice Springs as examples of routes that can be efficiently operated by aircraft such as the A220. The greater range of new-generation aircraft is also making longer direct routes possible, including Lisbon–Recife with the A321neo, Dublin–Nashville with the A321XLR, Algiers–Kuala Lumpur with the A330neo and Taipei–Phoenix with the A350.

This market development is already reflected in Airbus’ order backlog, which stands at around 9,000 aircraft. More than 70% of the remaining orders for the A320 Family are for the largest A321neo and A321XLR variants, which allow airlines to connect more distant cities without using widebody aircraft.

On routes with higher demand, Airbus expects a greater role for the A330neo, while the A350 is set to continue serving the longest intercontinental routes. The manufacturer also highlights growing interest in the A350F freighter, designed for the transport of high-value goods and shipments where delivery speed is particularly important.

The centre of growth is gradually shifting towards the Asia-Pacific region. Strong economic development in India, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to reshape existing traffic flows, while international migration and travel to visit friends and relatives will further increase demand.

At the same time, accelerated fleet ageing following the pandemic is expected to trigger the largest aircraft replacement cycle to date. Airbus estimates that latest-generation aircraft currently account for around 39% of the global fleet, while their share is expected to approach almost 100% by 2045.