The global commercial aviation services market is expected to double over the next two decades, reaching a value of more than USD 420 billion by 2045, according to Airbus’ latest Global Services Forecast (GSF). The projected average annual growth rate of 3.8% will be driven by the expansion of the global aircraft fleet, increasing passenger traffic, and growing demand for maintenance, technical support, digitalisation, and aviation training.

According to Airbus’ estimates, the global commercial aircraft fleet will expand to approximately 45,550 aircraft by 2045, representing an almost twofold increase compared to today’s fleet. At the same time, annual passenger numbers are expected to double, reaching ten billion.

Such growth will require substantial investment in infrastructure, maintenance, and human resources, with Airbus particularly highlighting the increasing demand for qualified aviation personnel.

Demand for 660,000 pilots and more than one million cabin crew members

One of the most significant findings of Airbus’ forecast concerns the aviation industry’s future workforce requirements. Over the next twenty years, the industry is expected to need 730,000 aircraft maintenance technicians, 660,000 pilots, and 1,050,000 cabin crew members.

In total, this represents demand for more than 2.44 million qualified aviation professionals to support the continued development and operation of global air transport.

These figures highlight a substantial challenge for flight schools, pilot training organisations, technical education institutions, and airlines themselves. In addition to expanding training capacity, the industry will need to provide sufficient instructors, appropriate practical training infrastructure, and programmes capable of attracting new generations of aviation professionals.

Aircraft maintenance remains the largest market segment

Airbus divides the aviation services market into six main segments. The largest share of future demand will come from Off-Wing Maintenance, which is expected to reach USD 217 billion by 2045, with an average annual growth rate of 3.7%. The increasing number of aircraft and the gradual ageing of the global fleet will result in more maintenance shop visits, component repairs and replacements, and greater demand for spare parts.

The second-largest segment will be Maintenance Operations Support, projected to reach USD 104 billion, with annual growth of 4.3%. This area covers the timely supply of spare parts, inventory management, and engineering support necessary to maintain aircraft airworthiness and reliability.

On-Wing Maintenance services, covering various levels of aircraft inspections, from routine checks to extensive maintenance activities, are expected to reach USD 36 billion, with an annual growth rate of 2.8%.

Digitalisation emerges as the fastest-growing segment

Although maintenance will remain the largest segment in financial terms, Airbus predicts that digital services and connectivity will experience the fastest growth among all market segments.

The value of this market is expected to triple, reaching USD 27 billion by 2045, with an average annual growth rate of 5.3%.

Digital solutions are increasingly becoming an integral part of airlines’ daily operations. Predictive maintenance, real-time data analysis, and improved integration of information systems enable earlier identification of technical issues, more efficient maintenance planning, and fewer operational disruptions, including delays and flight cancellations.

Growing passenger expectations are also driving investment in aircraft connectivity and digital services throughout the travel experience.

The Modifications & Upgrades segment is expected to reach USD 21 billion, with annual growth of 2.6%. This includes passenger cabin refurbishments, the installation of modern systems, and technological upgrades to older aircraft to extend their operational and economic viability.

The Training services market is projected to reach USD 17 billion by 2045, with an average annual growth rate of 3.1%. This segment will play a particularly important role in ensuring the availability of a sufficiently qualified aviation workforce.

Asia leads growth, while Europe and North America remain key markets

According to Airbus’ forecast, Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States, North America, and China will remain the largest individual aviation services markets in terms of total demand value.

However, the fastest growth is expected across the broader Asian market, including Asia-Pacific, China, and South Asia. Rising disposable incomes, expanding air transport networks, and growing fleets operated by regional airlines will continue to stimulate investment in aviation support services.

Cristina Aguilar Grieder, Senior Vice President Customer Services Commercial Aircraft at Airbus, emphasised that the doubling of the global fleet will require timely preparation across the entire industry.

“As the global fleet doubles to more than 45,550 aircraft by 2045, we need to get ready. Airbus is expanding its role as an integral services partner to support our customers across the entire aircraft lifecycle. By integrating predictive operations, fleet modernisation, and advanced digital solutions, we are helping airlines ensure fleet availability, reliability, safety and long-term operational excellence.”

Airbus’ forecast covers the commercial aviation services market for passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload capacity exceeding ten tonnes, regardless of aircraft manufacturer.

The forecast demonstrates that the growth of air transport over the next two decades will involve much more than simply increasing the number of aircraft and passengers. A substantial market for technical, operational, and digital services will develop alongside this expansion, while the availability of qualified personnel could become one of the key factors determining the aviation industry’s ability to keep pace with projected growth.